The SouthWest Border Crisis

The Insanity Knows No Bounds

The recent showdown between Governor Greg Abbott of Texas and the federal government has captured the fascination of the world.  In light of recent information about a new deal to secure the U.S. border, we explore a little bit of the history of this conflict and try to understand the data.

The current U.S. presidential administration has been criticized for what appeared at the onset to be a flimsy approach to border security.  In contrast to his predecessors, President Biden has been quite idle in his enforcement of any sort of border security.  This is part of a broader pro-immigration policy that has been in place since Biden took office.  His border security shortfalls are reflected in the following chart from The Economist (based on data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, or CBP), which shows an astronomical increase in immigration that begins to ramp up toward the end of the Trump administration before going through the roof at the beginning of the Biden presidency. 

Using the CBP terminology, the number of “encounters” indicates the “apprehensions, expulsions, and inadmissables.”  The actual number of people crossing the border is difficult to nail down for a few reasons:

1.     An “encounter” can only be counted if it takes place.  Not all crossings result in an encounter between the immigrant and CBP agents.  The 2021 estimated “at-the-border” apprehension rate was only 78% from 2018-2020.  The Department of Homeland Security “estimates that about 660,000 border crossers evaded apprehensions in 2021.”

2.     An individual may be encountered and expelled.  That individual may attempt to cross the border again at a later time and end up being included in the “encounter” data more than once.  We need to understand “unique” encounters.  DHS estimates 92% of encounters in 2019 were unique while only 66% of 2021 encounters were unique.

3.     What is counted as a single border encounter might actually be an encounter with a group (an entire family, for instance).  So, the number of reported “encounters” has the potential to underestimate the number of people.  Those group encounters can account for tens to hundreds of thousands of individuals each year.

Crunching the Numbers

Numbers matter.  And we are about to wade into some numbers.  Data is essential when trying to understand the magnitude of the illegal immigration issue.  But data analysis is funny.  The same data can be manipulated to tell two opposing sides of the same story.  A good analyst understands that historical data is variable, and an honest analyst resists the urge to cherry-pick the data that most strongly supports their claim.

In recent months, it has become a talking point among those wishing to curb illegal immigration to compare the number of illegal border crossings with the birth rate in the United States.  Meet Me in the Middle found no data to directly support claims that “there are officially more arriving each month than there are children being born to American mothers.”  However, the numbers are alarming!  The estimated number of births to American mothers in 2023 is about 3.66 million, or about 305,000 per month.  There were over 250,000 official “encounters” in December 2023.  Applying the reported 2021 rate of only 78% of border crossers being accounted for in the official “encounter” count, it is not completely unreasonable to bump that number up to ~323,000 illegal border crossings (and, by extension, the count of illegal immigrants). And that number is indeed greater than the average monthly birth numbers.

Some are quick to point out that we can’t just use data, even if it is the only data available.  Quoting PolitiFact, “To fairly compare the number of immigrants entering the U.S. with the number of births in the country, someone would need the number of unique individuals who are encountered by border authorities and are allowed to proceed into the U.S. But that’s not available.”  First of all, this is lazy and loathsome (and typical of the abhorrent and unreliable “fact-checking” industry), and it is exactly what you expect from a dishonest analyst.  It took little effort (the data is literally on the website to which PolitiFact links) to find official DHS data that shows 92% of the encounters in 2019 were unique, while 66% of the 2021 encounters were unique (look at that, PolitiFact, the data IS available!).  Applying the lower value (66% from 2021) to the 250,000 official encounters in December of 2023 and then applying the 78% factor – we end up with a rather conservative estimate of ~212,000 illegal immigrants.  That’s over 100,000 less than the previous estimate of ~323,000 illegal immigrants. 

So, while claims that the U.S. now sees more illegal immigrants than births to American mothers have some foundation, it is not very complicated to peel back the veneer through which that claim is made.  Dubious as the claim may have been, it does not change the significance of the statistics:  Each month, the U.S. may be seeing two illegal immigrants for every three births (but we don’t actually have the data to strongly argue that it may be much closer to one illegal immigrant for every birth).

While on the topic of births, an interesting statistic to consider is the birth rate.  Over recent years and in 2023, there were approximately 12 births in the U.S. per 1,000 people (which is a somewhat lower rate than can be expected from many of the countries from which the immigrants are coming).  The discussion here is absolutely an extrapolation, but let’s think through the impact of a similar birth rate among illegal immigrants.  When factoring in that potentially only 78% of border crossers are accounted for in the “encounters” statistics, we can bump up our 2021-2023 estimates of illegal crossings in 2021 (from 1.7 mil to 2.2 mil), 2022 (from 2.4 mil to 3.0 mil, 5.2 mil cumulative), and 2023 (from 2.5 mil to 3.2 mil, 8.4 mil cumulative).  If illegal immigrants have a similar birth rate, then we can estimate the illegal immigrants from the past three years have added about 190,000 births in that time frame (~27K in 2021, ~63K in 2022, and ~102K in 2023).  Plus, we should estimate about 100,000 more births per year in the future just from the illegal immigrants of 2021 to 2023.  We care about these mothers/families and their newborns, right?  So, we must consider their healthcare.  They are not citizens, and it is doubtful that they have health insurance, so how are these mothers and newborns being cared for? 

We have to ask ourselves: Is allowing so many illegal immigrants into the country really good for them?  And that question is asked in isolation from the concerns surrounding record deaths of migrants trying to make the journey, human trafficking, sexual exploitation of women and minors, and child labor practices.  It is time to be honest.  The U.S. is not taking in “your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”  Biden’s border policy is inviting these people to be exploited to hell and back, resulting in lower wages and fewer jobs for the citizens he was elected to help.  And new policies to bandage the repercussions of bad policies (that still have not changed) does little to address the conditions that Biden has promoted through his neglect. 

While the deplorable impact on immigrants, the strain on CBP agents, and the healthcare concerns are accepted by the Biden administration (for three years, anyway), there is more to the problem.  Since January 2021, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has seized over 2 million pounds of drugs entering the U.S. across our borders.  Over 1.1 million pounds of that was seized at the Southwest border.  They might not be the answer to all of the immigration problems, but maybe tearing down physical deterrents to entry is not a such a great idea?

The Pulse of The Public

A December 2023 survey from Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies shows that “most voters underestimate the amount of illegal border crossing” while most being polled agree that there should be “stricter policies.” 

The Timeline of the Biden-Abbott Showdown

Below is a timeline of public records related to immigration, including statements issued in the early days of Biden’s administration.  The focus of this timeline is more on the past year and the interactions between Abbott and the Biden administration.

January 20, 2021 (President Biden’s inauguration)

The White House published, “Fact Sheet:  President Biden Sends Immigration Bill to Congress as Part of His Commitment to Modernize our Immigration System.”  This fact sheet lays out pathways to citizenship, reforms intended to keep families together (removing a major deterrent to immigration), promotes diversity through immigration from more countries, promotes immigrant/refugee integration and citizenship, and claims to protect workers from exploitation.

July 27, 2021

The White House published “FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration Blueprint for a Fair, Orderly and Humane Immigration System.”  The president claims that “we will enforce our immigration laws in a way that is fair and just.” 

January 8, 2023

Governor Greg Abbott handed a letter to President Biden during a visit to the southern border.  Abbott accused President Biden of violating his “constitutional obligation to defend the States against invasion through faithful execution of federal laws.”  Abbott notes that this is Biden’s first visit to the southwest border and that it comes two years after the President took office.

November 16, 2022

Governor Abbott sent a letter to President Biden in which he detailed the consequences of failing to honor the promise of the U.S. Constitution to protect each state from invasion by failing to enforce immigration laws.

July 24, 2023

Governor Greg Abbott responded with a letter to President Biden after lawyers from the Department of Justice threatened legal action against the State of Texas.  Abbott accuses Biden of violating Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution.

October 24, 2023

The State of Texas sued the United States Department of Homeland Security for destroying border barriers.

December 19, 2023

The United States Court of Appeals, Fifth Circuit delivered a decision in the case of the State of Texas v. United States Department of Homeland Security.  The Court granted an injunction, ruling that the federal government was not allowed to damage, destroy, or otherwise interfere with the fencing that Texas installed.  In the ruling, there are photographs showing federal border patrol agents assisting illegal immigrants across the barrier that Texas established at the border.

January 17, 2024

The House Committee on Oversight and Accountability held a hearing titled “The Biden Administration’s Regulatory and Policymaking Efforts to Undermine U.S. Immigration Law.”  Thomas Holman, Retired Acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) testified.  Also, Joseph Edlow, Former Acting Director and Chief Counsel of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) testified.  Among the comments were:

• Mr. Holman noted that in “the first few days in office, President Biden signed over 90 executive orders abolishing all the policies that were proven effective based on numbers.”

• Mr. Homan said, “President Biden is the first President to ever in-secure a border on purpose.”

• Mr. Edlow said, “President Biden has waged war against the immigration system of the United States.”

• Discussing the millions of “enforcement actions,” Mr. Holman notes that 100% of agents were pulled off patrol to process these large numbers, leaving hundreds of miles of border “with no security and not a single agent on watch.”

• Mr. Edlow said, “I believe that the actions in terms of regulations have made the border significantly less secure, they are in violation of the law, and I do believe it is dereliction of duty to have signed off on regulations that have done that.”

January 22, 2024

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of vacating the injunction that was put in place by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on December 19, 2023.

January 24, 2024

Governor Abbott issued a statement about Biden’s violation of his oath to faithfully execute immigration laws.  Abbott stated that he has declared an invasion of Texas and has invoked Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself.

January 25, 2024

25 Republicans governors signed a joint statement in support of Governor Abbott and his state’s constitutional right to self-defense.  The letter cites the U.S. Constitution, Article IV, Section 4 (known as the “Guarantee Clause”): “The United States shall guarantee to every State in the Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.”  It also cites Article I, Section 10, Clause 3: “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.”

January 26, 2024

The White House released a “Statement from President Joe Biden On the Bipartisan Senate Border Security Negotiations.”  Biden opens with “For too long, we all know the border’s been broken. It’s long past time to fix it.”

A Look at Abbott’s Claims

In Governor Abbott’s statement on January 24, 2024, he made the claim that “more than 6 million illegal immigrants have crossed our southern border in just 3 years.”  This data is available through the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol website.  Meet Me in the Middle crunched the numbers, which is based on “encounters” with illegal immigrants who are crossing the border. 

• We found the official number, cumulative from January 2021 through December 2023, of SouthWest border crossing encounters to be 6,589,298. 

• Governor Abbott correctly pointed out that this sum of illegal immigrants is larger than the population of 33 different states. 

• In only three years, that is well more than the combined number of legal residents in the seven least populated states (there are about 5.8 million people in Rhode Island, Delaware, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming, combined). 

• Relative to the U.S. population, those illegal immigrant encounters are nearly 2% of the entire population of legal citizens.  That is more than six times the number of legal residents in President Biden’s home state of Delaware.

• Delaware became the first state to ratify the union on December 7, 1787, and the current population is estimated to be around 1,044,321. It took 237 years to get there.  Biden immigration policies permitted more SouthWest border crossings (over 1.2 million) than the population of Delaware between August and December of 2023, according to CBP encounter data.

• From 2010 to 2024, Biden’s home state of Delaware increased its population by less than 150,000.  That value is more than 100,000 less than the number of illegal SouthWest border crossings (over 252K) in December 2023 alone.

• The SouthWest border crossing encounters account for over 83% of all of the CBP encounters.

Let’s Be Clear:  Details of the January 2024 Senate Border Deal

In Biden’s January 26, 2024 statement, he uses his trademark statement of “Let’s be clear.”  He claims that the law being negotiated, if passed, would be the “toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country.”  The statement acknowledges that the bill would give the President authority to “shut down” the border and he would use that authority as soon as he signed the bill into law.  Please, let us be clear:  it is completely unclear what we would get from this deal.

On January 26, 2024, reporter Bill Melugin shared details of the Senate Border Deal.  There are criteria that must be met before a “shut down” can be triggered.  Either the average daily migrant encounters must hit 5,000 for the “shut down” to take effect or the number of single day encounters must reach 8,500.  Then the “shut down” remains in effect until the number of daily encounters are reduced to 3,750 migrant encounters per day for at least two weeks.  During the “shut down,” Border Patrol is to immediately remove illegal immigrants without processing.  Senator James Lankford, the lead Republican negotiator on the immigration deal, pushes back on “mischaracterizations” about the deal.  So, it is certainly worth waiting for the deal to come out in writing.  But for now, it is also worth considering what the deal might mean if it stands as Bill Melugin described.

So, doing a quick calculation, this bill would still permit over 1.8 million illegal immigrants per year.  Admittedly, that is a pretty good tick down from the over 9,700 daily encounters (over 8,100 at the SW border) that we saw in December 2023.  Still, this is not even close to a moderate solution.  Lasting a minimum of two weeks, each shut down would reduce the total permissible number of illegal migrants by a minimum of about 70,000.  Could it work? 

The high end of potential illegal immigrants is pretty high.  These laws could conceivably permit over 1.8 million illegal immigrant encounters per year if the number of daily encounters stays less than 5,000 per day.  Factor in that only about 78% of border crossers are apprehended and that high end number balloons to over 2.3 million illegal border crossings per year.

However, the low end could be very low (theoretically, anyway).  These laws could limit the number of total illegal immigrants to 8,500 for the entire year – if that number is met on the first day that the law is implemented, and the agents henceforth apprehend and deport 100% of all border crossers.  Regardless of the efficiency of apprehension, the potential for the low end would likely take us out of crisis mode.

More likely, however, is that the number of border crossings changes very little.  Border patrol remains overwhelmed.  Processing pulls the overwhelmed border patrol force from the border, once again leaving the border unguarded.

How Does This Deal Meet in the Middle?

Generally, it seems advocates for heightened border security care strongly about the future of the country and do actually care about the immigrants who are being exploited.  Those in favor of softer border security policy cite the need for more humane treatment but also seem more than willing to overlook the inhumane treatment that results from the softer policies of the current administration, in particular.  The problem with the deal is that there is both a really low floor and a really high ceiling for the potential number of illegal immigrants but does little to address the inhumane conditions that the exploited migrants must endure.

Ultimately, there is too much uncertainty about the end result of the deal is we currently understand it.  If the outcome was that we end up with over a million illegal immigrants per year, it would surely be seen as insufficient for addressing the illegal immigration issue.  It was nice of President Biden to try to address the ongoing crisis in his FOURTH year in office, but any appeal offered by this deal is not substantiated by its weak foundation.

Are there any immigration reform concepts that have a hope of addressing both liberal and conservative concerns?  Steven Kopits, author of the Princeton Policy blog, offers a solution that perhaps has some real merit:  Market-based Visas.  He highlights goals of a Market-based Visa, or MBV, program, including closing the border to illegal immigration, ending the black market for undocumented labor, end mass deportations, and creating an orderly guest worker program. One benefit of MBV that Mr. Kopits cites is creating “tolerance and dignity by ending the impact of black markets – the lawlessness, victimization, racism and simmering ideological civil war – on employers, migrants, the policy community, and the U.S. public.”  This is a policy that meets in the middle!  Could it work?

How about another guy, who seems to have a plan for just about everything?  Robert Kennedy, Jr. has visited the border and understands the crisis.  He has put some actual thought into solutions, well beyond the “build a wall” rhetoric and the “let’s be clear” hogwash that has proven not to have legs.  Read about RFK Jr.’s policy and scroll down on his border page to watch his videos about the border and his border policy.  You might just catch a breath of fresh air.

Bringing It Home

One does not have to love Republican border security measures to dislike Democratic practices and ineptitude.  Does Abbott have a case that the millions of illegal border crossers constitutes an “invasion”? Perhaps. Is Abbott doing the right thing in response to bad policy?  Well, he certainly called for help and for change and got no response from the President (in fact, he got the opposite, with federal agents tearing down physical deterrents at the border).  Is more razor wire the answer?  Probably not, even though it is no less humane than Biden’s policy that enables rape, child labor, and human trafficking. While the liberal media prefers to focus on the “intense rhetoric” rather than the harm that an unsecured border actually inflicts on both our nation and the migrants, we prefer to focus on solutions that offer hope of building unity.  We can do better than a deal that does not end these problems.  Let us see what the deal says when it is released in writing.  Until then, let us also prepare to demand more of our legislators.  There is too much at stake.